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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
REKONIXloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 31 game
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 22 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 21 game
38%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 20 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Niku · 20 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Riddys · 19 games
42%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 19 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 18 games
50%

REKONIX

Tiny
Tiny
inYourdreaM · 21 game
43%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 20 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 18 games
22%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 14 games
71%
Kez
Kezsignature
TraVins · 14 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Varizh · 14 games
57%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TraVins · 14 games
36%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dalul · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
510 picks · 306 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
482 picks · 576 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 354 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
404 picks · 305 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
369 picks · 201 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
351 picks · 312 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
340 picks · 847 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
337 picks · 843 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% REKONIX
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total79% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:24
Natus Vincere 66%REKONIX 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by REKONIX in 46:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristlebackpma
50% · 238 games59% · 102 games
Naga SirenTraVins
Naga Siren
Monkey King
Monkey Kinggotthejuice
51% · 218 games51% · 387 games
PuckinYourdreaM
Puck
Night Stalker
Night StalkerNiku
45% · 84 games45% · 202 games
UnderlordFbz
Underlord
Enchantress
EnchantressRiddys
44% · 175 games50% · 281 game
Rubickdalul
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDaze
51% · 407 games53% · 150 games
SilencerVarizh
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct39:9
Natus Vincere 66%REKONIX 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 31:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangergotthejuice
53% · 325 games51% · 511 games
PuckinYourdreaM
Puck
Underlord
Underlordpma
47% · 269 games50% · 239 games
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
Centaur Warrunner
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNiku
48% · 516 games54% · 84 games
Faceless VoidTraVins
Faceless Void
Rubick
RubickDaze
49% · 200 games46% · 293 games
Batriderdalul
Batrider
Oracle
OracleRiddys
53% · 96 games51% · 279 games
PhoenixVarizh
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct37:35
Natus Vincere 66%REKONIX 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 54:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangergotthejuice
50% · 240 games50% · 603 games
TinyTraVins
Tiny
Axe
Axepma
47% · 212 games55% · 163 games
Keeper of the LightinYourdreaM
Keeper of the Light
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNiku
45% · 265 games56% · 389 games
SlardarFbz
Slardar
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonRiddys
50% · 366 games46% · 212 games
Rubickdalul
Rubick
Tusk
TuskDaze
49% · 497 games52% · 213 games
EnchantressVarizh
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 79%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3