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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SIBE Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Lion
Lionsignature
xsvampire · 9 games
78%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Malik · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Malik · 6 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 6 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Shigetsu · 6 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
mellojul · 6 games
67%
Sven
Sven
Shigetsu · 6 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Malady · 6 games
33%

SIBE Team

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
klassnokruto · 12 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 12 games
83%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
klassnokruto · 12 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
emptiness · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 10 games
70%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 9 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Rein · 9 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 432 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
244 picks · 381 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
243 picks · 334 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
216 picks · 204 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
210 picks · 298 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
204 picks · 100 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 494 bans
52%
Kunkka
Kunkka
180 picks · 506 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% SIBE Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:14
Natus Vincere 64%SIBE Team 36%
The model gave 64% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 38:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaShigetsu
48% · 96 games48% · 71 game
Lunalayme
Luna
Puck
Puckmellojul
48% · 161 game54% · 38 games
Razorklassnokruto
Razor
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNefrit
51% · 158 games49% · 106 games
Invokerряф^^
Invoker
Lion
LionZayac
53% · 119 games50% · 220 games
Tinysunset
Tiny
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiMalady
43% · 20 games52% · 119 games
TechiesRein
Techies
Game 2prediction correct25:8
Natus Vincere 62%SIBE Team 38%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 29:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerShigetsu
49% · 86 games52% · 62 games
Troll Warlordlayme
Troll Warlord
Pangolier
Pangoliermellojul
56% · 366 games43% · 164 games
Windrangerряф^^
Windranger
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNefrit
56% · 258 games46% · 211 games
Magnusklassnokruto
Magnus
Techies
TechiesZayac
55% · 357 games42% · 244 games
PhoenixRein
Phoenix
Snapfire
SnapfireMalady
53% · 368 games49% · 754 games
Rubicksunset
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 74%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2