Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
StoRmloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Rubick
xsvampire · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 10 games
Undyingoften banned
Malady · 9 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Malik · 7 games
Primal Beastoften banned
nicky`cool · 7 games
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 7 games
Clockwerk
Malady · 6 games
Disruptor
Malady · 6 games
StoRm
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
re1bl · 10 games
Tinyoften banned
RodjER · 10 games
Clockwerk
SoNNeikO · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
SoNNeikO · 8 games
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 8 games
Leshracoften banned
re1bl · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
708 picks · 608 bans
Disruptor
581 picks · 504 bans
Beastmaster
482 picks · 1181 bans
Doom
479 picks · 889 bans
Ember Spirit
427 picks · 1083 bans
Pangolier
408 picks · 869 bans
Mirana
402 picks · 218 bans
Enchantress
399 picks · 572 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:27
Natus Vincere 56%StoRm 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 46:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RikiShigetsu
Monkey Kingkrylat
Void Spiritmellojul
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
MagnusMalik
Legion Commanderemptiness
Miranaxsvampire
Skywrath MageOneJey
OracleMalady
SilencerSoNNeikO
Game 2prediction correct30:19
Natus Vincere 55%StoRm 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 28:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerShigetsu
Lunakrylat
Pangoliermellojul
Beastmasteremptiness
Dark SeerMalik
Winter Wyvernnicky`cool
OracleMalady
VenomancerSoNNeikO
Techiesxsvampire
Skywrath MageOneJey
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 63%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2