Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Empireloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Gyrocopteroften banned
V-Tune · 4 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
SoNNeikO · 3 games
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
RodjER · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
RAMZES666 · 3 games
Axe
RAMZES666 · 2 games
Dark Willow
RodjER · 2 games
Hoodwink
RodjER · 2 games
Team Empire
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 24 games
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 19 games
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 15 games
Bane
Kaori · 14 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 14 games
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 14 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
322 picks · 470 bans
Bane
281 picks · 213 bans
Snapfire
272 picks · 152 bans
Weaver
261 picks · 569 bans
Tidehunter
260 picks · 395 bans
Monkey King
259 picks · 705 bans
Ember Spirit
216 picks · 299 bans
Lion
211 picks · 98 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% Team Empire
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:39
Natus Vincere 49%Team Empire 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 54:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaNo[o]ne
Razorlightless
KunkkaV-Tune
WindrangerShisui
ClockwerkGeneRaL
AxeGhostik
Treant ProtectorSolo
Phoenix[T]SA
LionALOHADANCE
BaneKaori
Game 2prediction missed33:17
Natus Vincere 49%Team Empire 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 44:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingV-Tune
Terrorbladelightless
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
Queen of PainShisui
Sand KingGeneRaL
SlardarGhostik
LionALOHADANCE
Snapfire[T]SA
SilencerSolo
WeaverKaori
Game 3prediction correct29:9
Natus Vincere 50%Team Empire 50%
The model gave 50% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 26:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerV-Tune
Terrorbladelightless
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
Void SpiritShisui
Sand KingGeneRaL
SlardarGhostik
GrimstrokeALOHADANCE
Io[T]SA
LichSolo
DisruptorKaori
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 51%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3