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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
series probability
7%93%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 21 game
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 17 games
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 14 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 14 games
79%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Zayac · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Sancity · 13 games
69%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Zayac · 13 games
38%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 44 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 34 games
85%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
72%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 29 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 29 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 27 games
56%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 24 games
79%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 24 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 673 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
418 picks · 493 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 535 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
354 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
331 picks · 442 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
315 picks · 335 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
308 picks · 595 bans
53%
Alchemist
Alchemist
305 picks · 675 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 68%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total93% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:36
Natus Vincere 21%Team Falcons 79%
The model gave 79% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:08:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingShad
49% · 177 games51% · 103 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Timbersaw
TimbersawBOOM
51% · 250 games54% · 78 games
UrsaSkiter
Ursa
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSancity
55% · 131 game52% · 108 games
SniperMalr1ne
Sniper
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionKaori
50% · 15 games49% · 259 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Lion
LionQBFY
49% · 241 game43% · 266 games
BatriderCr1t-
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct23:34
Natus Vincere 22%Team Falcons 78%
The model gave 78% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 45:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightShad
48% · 55 games51% · 99 games
MedusaSkiter
Medusa
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeBOOM
40% · 105 games48% · 64 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Lina
LinaSancity
51% · 82 games56% · 377 games
TinyMalr1ne
Tiny
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
47% · 195 games47% · 31 game
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
Shadow Shaman
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
53% · 258 games54% · 124 games
PugnaSneyking
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 93%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2