BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 1:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Tideboundloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Warlock
Kaori · 25 games
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 22 games
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 17 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
Team Tidebound
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
Puckoften banned
Echo · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
Faith_bian · 12 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Echo · 11 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
774 picks · 354 bans
Disruptor
587 picks · 599 bans
Hoodwink
559 picks · 299 bans
Tusk
458 picks · 275 bans
Dragon Knight
457 picks · 535 bans
Jakiro
451 picks · 280 bans
Mars
448 picks · 737 bans
Puck
430 picks · 1126 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:11
Natus Vincere 56%Team Tidebound 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 44:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Templar Assassinshiro
HuskarNiku
Beastmasterniu
Pangolierpma
Sand KingEcho
PugnaRiddys
GyrocopterpLAnet
BaneZayac
Jakiroy`
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 62%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1