BLAST Slam VI · BO5
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 3:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Team Yandexloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Disruptor
Riddys · 29 games
Warlock
Riddys · 26 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 20 games
Marsoften banned
pma · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 19 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 18 games
Team Yandex
Tusksignature
Malady · 32 games
Jakirosignature
Malady · 29 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 23 games
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 20 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Watson · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
618 picks · 951 bans
Tusk
525 picks · 431 bans
Centaur Warrunner
469 picks · 626 bans
Shadow Demon
432 picks · 969 bans
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 553 bans
Tiny
409 picks · 459 bans
Warlock
409 picks · 250 bans
Mars
392 picks · 537 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Team Yandex
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total51% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:28
Natus Vincere 50%Team Yandex 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 33:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
KezWatson
BristlebackNiku
BeastmasterChira JUNIOR
Marspma
UnderlordMalik
GrimstrokeRiddys
JakiroMalady
HoodwinkZayac
Shadow DemonSaksa
Game 2prediction missed28:11
Natus Vincere 50%Team Yandex 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 23:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weavergotthejuice
InvokerChira JUNIOR
KezNiku
WindrangerWatson
Underlordpma
TidehunterMalik
HoodwinkZayac
UndyingMalady
WarlockRiddys
Shadow DemonSaksa
Game 3prediction correct22:36
Natus Vincere 48%Team Yandex 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 48:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
ClinkzWatson
ViperNiku
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Kunkkapma
MarsMalik
LargoZayac
JakiroMalady
RingmasterRiddys
HoodwinkSaksa
Game 4prediction correct31:38
Natus Vincere 50%Team Yandex 50%
The model gave 50% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 1:00:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassingotthejuice
TerrorbladeWatson
Razorpma
MarsMalik
Ember SpiritNiku
PuckChira JUNIOR
TinyZayac
ChenMalady
WarlockRiddys
MuertaSaksa
Game 5prediction correct28:11
Natus Vincere 52%Team Yandex 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 40:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razorgotthejuice
KezWatson
Centaur Warrunnerpma
ChenMalady
HuskarNiku
WindrangerChira JUNIOR
HoodwinkZayac
MarsMalik
DazzleRiddys
Ancient ApparitionSaksa
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 51%
Series resultNatus Vincere 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game4 of 5