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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
ALOHADANCE · 12 games
58%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
GeneRaL · 12 games
67%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Solo · 11 games
73%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
No[o]ne · 8 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 7 games
57%
Weaver
Weaversignature
V-Tune · 7 games
71%
Lion
Lion
ALOHADANCE · 6 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
GeneRaL · 6 games
67%

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 10 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
1ls · 10 games
80%
Bane
Banesignature
Save- · 9 games
78%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
1ls · 9 games
56%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
DM · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Nightfall · 8 games
75%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
gpK~ · 8 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
1ls · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
427 picks · 316 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
400 picks · 584 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
336 picks · 394 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
330 picks · 751 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
323 picks · 178 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
258 picks · 442 bans
56%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
252 picks · 363 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
240 picks · 167 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total64% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:39
Natus Vincere 44%Virtus.pro 56%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 41:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingV-Tune
54% · 234 games51% · 284 games
PuckgpK~
Puck
Invoker
InvokerNo[o]ne
47% · 210 games46% · 173 games
KunkkaPure~
Kunkka
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerGeneRaL
53% · 142 games44% · 139 games
DoomDM
Doom
Weaver
WeaverALOHADANCE
51% · 245 games50% · 51 game
Enigmayamich
Enigma
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSolo
58% · 100 games48% · 284 games
BaneXakoda
Bane
Game 2prediction correct12:34
Natus Vincere 41%Virtus.pro 59%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 25:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordV-Tune
52% · 107 games49% · 23 games
ClinkzPure~
Clinkz
Mars
MarsGeneRaL
49% · 307 games47% · 68 games
BroodmotherDM
Broodmother
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
54% · 174 games44% · 356 games
Void SpiritgpK~
Void Spirit
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeALOHADANCE
42% · 170 games60% · 196 games
Weaveryamich
Weaver
Silencer
SilencerSolo
52% · 59 games50% · 174 games
DisruptorXakoda
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 64%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2