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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Lion
Lion
Zayac · 15 games
47%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nefrit · 9 games
67%
Razor
Razorsignature
Nefrit · 9 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 8 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Shigetsu · 8 games
75%

Virtus.pro

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 22 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 20 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 17 games
65%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 15 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fng · 14 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 14 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Squad1x · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
452 picks · 726 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
422 picks · 682 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
418 picks · 337 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
407 picks · 355 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
405 picks · 526 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 886 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
381 picks · 180 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
380 picks · 174 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 49%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total58% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:27
Natus Vincere 45%Virtus.pro 55%
The model gave 55% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 39:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYuragi
47% · 170 games62% · 130 games
AlchemistKiritych
Alchemist
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNefrit
46% · 296 games49% · 322 games
PangolierSquad1x
Pangolier
Tiny
TinySancity
49% · 259 games53% · 139 games
MagnusNoticed
Magnus
Enigma
EnigmaZayac
46% · 109 games48% · 201 game
Shadow Demonsayuw
Shadow Demon
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMalady
43% · 143 games58% · 185 games
MiranaFng
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct17:31
Natus Vincere 48%Virtus.pro 52%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 46:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYuragi
51% · 123 games54% · 89 games
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Zeus
ZeusSancity
48% · 52 games50% · 129 games
LifestealerKiritych
Lifestealer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
48% · 225 games50% · 306 games
PangolierNoticed
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaMalady
55% · 176 games50% · 90 games
EnigmaFng
Enigma
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonZayac
50% · 159 games42% · 121 game
Tusksayuw
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 58%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2