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Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 18 games
61%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 12 games
50%
Sven
Sven
Yuragi · 12 games
42%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Sancity · 11 games
64%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
36%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Sancity · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
40%

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 30 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 27 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 20 games
70%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 18 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
405 picks · 413 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
403 picks · 891 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
392 picks · 295 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
383 picks · 803 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 537 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
342 picks · 678 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
336 picks · 477 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
316 picks · 383 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:31
Natus Vincere 28%Xtreme Gaming 72%
The model gave 72% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 46:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaSancity
53% · 77 games54% · 106 games
UrsaAme
Ursa
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpma
52% · 147 games45% · 77 games
Shadow FiendXm
Shadow Fiend
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightYuragi
47% · 146 games53% · 306 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Enchantress
EnchantressMalady
51% · 182 games54% · 202 games
ClockwerkXinQ
Clockwerk
Rubick
RubickZayac
46% · 286 games46% · 147 games
SnapfireDy
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed29:12
Natus Vincere 30%Xtreme Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 38:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYuragi
51% · 210 games56% · 128 games
AlchemistAme
Alchemist
Underlord
Underlordpma
49% · 69 games55% · 190 games
PuckXm
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSancity
41% · 223 games52% · 397 games
PangolierXxs
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickZayac
49% · 333 games55% · 252 games
EnchantressXinQ
Enchantress
Phoenix
PhoenixMalady
45% · 284 games48% · 152 games
JakiroDy
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct20:25
Natus Vincere 30%Xtreme Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 41:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYuragi
52% · 182 games48% · 164 games
MorphlingAme
Morphling
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSancity
45% · 135 games57% · 160 games
Ember SpiritXm
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpma
53% · 125 games54% · 90 games
UnderlordXxs
Underlord
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerZayac
44% · 69 games54% · 55 games
MiranaXinQ
Mirana
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
50% · 106 games45% · 148 games
SnapfireDy
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 85%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3