BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 1:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Warlock
Kaori · 25 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 24 games
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 23 games
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 21 game
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 17 games
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 17 games
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 31 game
Puckoften banned
Emo · 21 game
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 19 games
Bane
Oli · 15 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 15 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 15 games
Jakiro
Poloson · 14 games
Anti-Magesignature
flyfly · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
777 picks · 354 bans
Disruptor
583 picks · 593 bans
Hoodwink
563 picks · 299 bans
Dragon Knight
470 picks · 542 bans
Jakiro
468 picks · 286 bans
Tusk
466 picks · 273 bans
Mars
453 picks · 740 bans
Puck
435 picks · 1121 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:23
Natus Vincere 65%Yakult Brothers 35%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 56:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Dragon KnightEmo
Shadow FiendNiku
Storm Spiritflyfly
Marspma
Lycanzeal
JakiroRiddys
BatriderBoBoKa
BaneZayac
Pugna天命
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 75%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1