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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 22 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 18 games
56%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Copy · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 14 games
43%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 12 games
42%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 12 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
Copy · 11 games
73%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 35 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 28 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 26 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Nande · 26 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
48%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 24 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Pablo · 23 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
298 picks · 744 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
284 picks · 257 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
273 picks · 173 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
260 picks · 692 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
259 picks · 277 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
252 picks · 244 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
248 picks · 697 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 575 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:8
Natus Vincere 72%Zero Tenacity 28%
The model gave 72% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 34:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddongotthejuice
45% · 169 games58% · 143 games
Nature's Prophet423
Nature's Prophet
Underlord
Underlordpma
50% · 93 games50% · 149 games
Storm SpiritMirage
Storm Spirit
Invoker
InvokerNiku
47% · 207 games42% · 75 games
AxeNefrit
Axe
Snapfire
SnapfireZayac
43% · 209 games55% · 188 games
PhoenixJeezy
Phoenix
Dazzle
DazzleRiddys
52% · 83 games56% · 206 games
ClockwerkSe
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct25:36
Natus Vincere 72%Zero Tenacity 28%
The model gave 72% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 56:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svengotthejuice
50% · 124 games49% · 300 games
Storm SpiritMirage
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNiku
53% · 280 games48% · 82 games
UnderlordNefrit
Underlord
Magnus
Magnuspma
58% · 212 games46% · 157 games
Marci423
Marci
Snapfire
SnapfireZayac
52% · 119 games43% · 121 game
RubickJeezy
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorRiddys
49% · 119 games50% · 194 games
WarlockSe
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 87%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2