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BLAST Slam IX. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Kez
Kezsignature
Niku · 20 games
65%
Axe
Axesignature
pma · 19 games
89%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Daze · 19 games
58%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Daze · 18 games
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 15 games
60%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 15 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Niku · 11 games
73%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Niku · 11 games
73%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 36 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 31 game
71%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 29 games
48%
Techies
Techiessignature
dEsire · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nesfeer · 23 games
61%
Bane
Banesignature
MoOz · 22 games
68%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 21 game
43%
Tusk
Tusksignature
dEsire · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
459 picks · 290 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 469 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
297 picks · 111 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
293 picks · 313 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
285 picks · 405 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
285 picks · 122 bans
49%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
281 picks · 589 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
270 picks · 366 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total84% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:22
Natus Vincere 71%Zero Tenacity 29%
The model gave 71% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 45:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirengotthejuice
55% · 85 games39% · 288 games
WindrangerShigetsu
Windranger
Lina
LinaNiku
57% · 100 games49% · 283 games
Dragon Knighterase
Dragon Knight
Slardar
Slardarpma
50% · 319 games51% · 79 games
EnigmaNefrit
Enigma
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDaze
56% · 621 game42% · 246 games
Dark Willowwaveformn
Dark Willow
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorRiddys
52% · 47 games52% · 276 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct40:10
Natus Vincere 71%Zero Tenacity 29%
The model gave 71% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 26:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezgotthejuice
57% · 178 games61% · 85 games
EnigmaNefrit
Enigma
Underlord
Underlordpma
44% · 174 games44% · 469 games
TinyShigetsu
Tiny
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNiku
49% · 113 games44% · 9 games
Outworld Destroyererase
Outworld Destroyer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDaze
56% · 421 game44% · 302 games
Dark Willowwaveformn
Dark Willow
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernRiddys
54% · 124 games46% · 145 games
LichHduo
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 84%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2