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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
4Pirateswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
young G · 11 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 9 games
67%
Sven
Svenoften banned
bashka · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
bashka · 8 games
25%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 8 games
25%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 7 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 7 games
43%

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 31 game
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
ariel · 31 game
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 24 games
67%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
57%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 18 games
78%
Jakiro
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
583 picks · 589 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
395 picks · 392 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
377 picks · 405 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
350 picks · 209 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 506 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
329 picks · 708 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
320 picks · 619 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
318 picks · 808 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 64%
Hero pool strength60% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total66% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:12
Nemiga Gaming 38%4Pirates 62%
The model gave 62% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 31:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusabashka
51% · 70 games49% · 96 games
AbaddonOtaker
Abaddon
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirityoung G
47% · 154 games51% · 56 games
Axeмистер мораль
Axe
Mars
MarsCovisnine
49% · 67 games56% · 14 games
Skywrath MageNattyNarwhal
Skywrath Mage
Silencer
SilencerMary_y
53% · 68 games58% · 118 games
Naga SirenPERDAN4IK
Naga Siren
Snapfire
Snapfirexsvampire
44% · 70 games45% · 145 games
Marciariel
Marci
Game 2prediction correct36:33
Nemiga Gaming 42%4Pirates 58%
The model gave 58% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 45:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetbashka
53% · 155 games45% · 205 games
MedusaOtaker
Medusa
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCovisnine
53% · 139 games39% · 111 games
LeshracNattyNarwhal
Leshrac
Monkey King
Monkey Kingyoung G
56% · 231 game44% · 445 games
Pangolierмистер мораль
Pangolier
Batrider
Batriderxsvampire
50% · 251 game55% · 175 games
Naga SirenPERDAN4IK
Naga Siren
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMary_y
56% · 237 games48% · 77 games
Baneariel
Bane
Game 3prediction correct24:23
Nemiga Gaming 38%4Pirates 62%
The model gave 62% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 52:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladebashka
45% · 365 games51% · 189 games
Nature's ProphetOtaker
Nature's Prophet
Sniper
Sniperyoung G
48% · 128 games49% · 78 games
Underlordмистер мораль
Underlord
Kunkka
KunkkaCovisnine
44% · 263 games46% · 319 games
TinyNattyNarwhal
Tiny
Rubick
Rubickxsvampire
46% · 135 games61% · 165 games
Naga SirenPERDAN4IK
Naga Siren
Bane
BaneMary_y
57% · 116 games54% · 256 games
Shadow Shamanariel
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 66%
Series result4Pirates 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3