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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 22 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 17 games
65%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 16 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 16 games
44%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 14 games
43%
Lina
Linasignature
Ainkrad · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ainkrad · 13 games
62%

B8 Esports

Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 10 games
70%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 10 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 10 games
70%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 9 games
44%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancersignature
Watson · 8 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Limitless · 7 games
71%
Lina
Linaoften banned
[T]SA · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
383 picks · 167 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
353 picks · 127 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
259 picks · 346 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
257 picks · 519 bans
57%
Lina
Lina
250 picks · 410 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
247 picks · 242 bans
54%
Luna
Luna
246 picks · 332 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
235 picks · 541 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% B8 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:34
Nemiga Gaming 59%B8 Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 37:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinKiritych
49% · 32 games61% · 35 games
ClinkzWatson
Clinkz
Pangolier
PangolierAinkrad
39% · 79 games47% · 145 games
Storm SpiritDendi
Storm Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingTheChosenOne
38% · 50 games62% · 41 game
Night StalkerLimitless
Night Stalker
Phoenix
PhoenixHeaven
42% · 89 games58% · 91 game
Shadow Demon[T]SA
Shadow Demon
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinLodine
57% · 62 games
Game 2prediction correct25:18
Nemiga Gaming 58%B8 Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 36:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaKiritych
46% · 94 games53% · 29 games
Arc WardenWatson
Arc Warden
Batrider
BatriderAinkrad
39% · 92 games49% · 161 game
TidehunterLimitless
Tidehunter
Pangolier
PangolierTheChosenOne
50% · 133 games51% · 250 games
Void SpiritDendi
Void Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHeaven
60% · 73 games49% · 106 games
Keeper of the Light[T]SA
Keeper of the Light
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinLodine
53% · 154 games
Game 3prediction correct49:32
Nemiga Gaming 58%B8 Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 46:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierAinkrad
48% · 133 games54% · 39 games
ClinkzWatson
Clinkz
Slark
SlarkKiritych
42% · 32 games49% · 140 games
MarsLimitless
Mars
Lina
LinaHeaven
48% · 134 games53% · 72 games
ViperDendi
Viper
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritTheChosenOne
59% · 10 games57% · 65 games
Shadow Demon[T]SA
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroLodine
33% · 7 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 66%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3