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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bramewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 29 games
38%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 28 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 20 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 18 games
56%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ainkrad · 17 games
47%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 15 games
47%

Brame

Lina
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
54%
Mars
Marssignature
SkyLark · 13 games
62%
Weaver
Weaversignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
73%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
Nefrit · 10 games
70%
Bane
Banesignature
SsaSpartan · 9 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 9 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
321 picks · 451 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
274 picks · 209 bans
60%
Monkey King
Monkey King
273 picks · 688 bans
59%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
262 picks · 400 bans
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
256 picks · 140 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
248 picks · 545 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
211 picks · 97 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
208 picks · 241 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Brame
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:46
Nemiga Gaming 47%Brame 53%
The model gave 53% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 32:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerAinkrad
58% · 9 games36% · 59 games
KunkkaNefrit
Kunkka
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightKiritych
48% · 11 games53% · 127 games
PuckW1sh-
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierTheChosenOne
56% · 157 games42% · 84 games
TimbersawSkyLark
Timbersaw
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHeaven
56% · 106 games43% · 41 game
Spirit BreakerCTOMAHEH1
Spirit Breaker
Weaver
WeaverVANSKOR
49% · 101 game56% · 73 games
Shadow ShamanSsaSpartan
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct34:35
Nemiga Gaming 46%Brame 54%
The model gave 54% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 45:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordKiritych
47% · 115 games50% · 128 games
Monkey KingNefrit
Monkey King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAinkrad
54% · 84 games45% · 51 game
Nature's ProphetSkyLark
Nature's Prophet
Slardar
SlardarTheChosenOne
56% · 37 games51% · 106 games
Death ProphetW1sh-
Death Prophet
Io
IoHeaven
49% · 96 games43% · 34 games
Spirit BreakerCTOMAHEH1
Spirit Breaker
Bane
BaneVANSKOR
50% · 83 games54% · 96 games
Dark WillowSsaSpartan
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 54%
Series resultBrame 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2