Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Creepwavewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 26 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 25 games
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 20 games
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 19 games
Hoodwink
Heaven · 17 games
Dark Willow
Heaven · 16 games
Linasignature
Heaven · 15 games
Lion
Lodine · 15 games
Creepwave
Marsoften banned
ATF · 9 games
Razoroften banned
ATF · 8 games
Svenoften banned
Crystallis · 8 games
Hoodwinksignature
Chuvash · 7 games
Bane
Fishman · 6 games
Dark Willow
Chuvash · 6 games
Disruptorsignature
Kataomi · 6 games
Tinysignature
bzm · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
352 picks · 176 bans
Hoodwink
299 picks · 108 bans
Mars
260 picks · 417 bans
Lina
259 picks · 506 bans
Pangolier
255 picks · 349 bans
Luna
239 picks · 331 bans
Shadow Demon
223 picks · 235 bans
Nyx Assassin
222 picks · 475 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:42
Nemiga Gaming 38%Creepwave 62%
The model gave 62% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 31:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreKiritych
Invokerbzm
PuckAinkrad
Monkey KingCrystallis
MarsTheChosenOne
Faceless VoidATF
Shadow DemonHeaven
RubickChuvash
JakiroLodine
SilencerFishman
Game 2prediction correct9:38
Nemiga Gaming 40%Creepwave 60%
The model gave 60% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 35:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaKiritych
SvenCrystallis
PangolierAinkrad
Tinkerbzm
RazorTheChosenOne
MarsATF
Dark WillowHeaven
WindrangerChuvash
TuskLodine
SilencerFishman
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 70%
Series resultCreepwave 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2