Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Darksidewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 9 games
Tusksignature
Malr1ne · 9 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 8 games
Phoenix
Hellscream · 8 games
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 8 games
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 8 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Kiritych · 7 games
Silencersignature
so bad · 7 games
Darkside
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 334 bans
Tusk
331 picks · 327 bans
Mirana
225 picks · 237 bans
Crystal Maiden
218 picks · 144 bans
Pangolier
199 picks · 535 bans
Leshrac
198 picks · 415 bans
Rubick
197 picks · 160 bans
Snapfire
186 picks · 109 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 60%
Hero pool strength60% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Darkside
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:41
Nemiga Gaming 50%Darkside 50%
The model gave 50% on Darkside — the game was taken by Darkside in 48:39.
Game 2prediction correct12:30
Nemiga Gaming 50%Darkside 50%
The model gave 50% on Darkside — the game was taken by Darkside in 42:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteDarkside · 50%
Series resultDarkside 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2