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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fantastic Fiveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 22 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 13 games
54%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Kiritych · 12 games
58%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 11 games
36%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 10 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Lodine · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Lodine · 8 games
75%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 8 games
50%

Fantastic Five

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 10 games
70%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 8 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 8 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
633 · 7 games
57%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
SuperNova · 6 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Muka · 4 games
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Muka · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
448 picks · 194 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 582 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
390 picks · 885 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
372 picks · 206 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
347 picks · 323 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 236 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 396 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
290 picks · 398 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total55% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:24
Nemiga Gaming 53%Fantastic Five 47%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 41:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKiritych
57% · 72 games50% · 260 games
Void SpiritAskold
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckAinkrad
51% · 322 games48% · 80 games
ViperLastHero-
Viper
Dark Seer
Dark SeerTheChosenOne
46% · 65 games48% · 281 game
Lion633
Lion
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinHeaven
55% · 178 games46% · 115 games
ClockwerkMuka
Clockwerk
Abaddon
AbaddonLodine
51% · 99 games
Game 2prediction missed15:34
Nemiga Gaming 53%Fantastic Five 47%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 36:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerKiritych
55% · 37 games46% · 130 games
Void SpiritAskold
Void Spirit
Batrider
BatriderAinkrad
45% · 50 games47% · 72 games
AxeLastHero-
Axe
Leshrac
LeshracTheChosenOne
52% · 77 games46% · 26 games
Treant Protector633
Treant Protector
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHeaven
55% · 45 games52% · 65 games
Dark WillowMuka
Dark Willow
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionLodine
53% · 84 games
Game 3prediction correct25:12
Nemiga Gaming 53%Fantastic Five 47%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerKiritych
46% · 46 games52% · 46 games
BatriderAskold
Batrider
Invoker
InvokerAinkrad
51% · 54 games40% · 46 games
BeastmasterLastHero-
Beastmaster
Axe
AxeTheChosenOne
44% · 57 games60% · 70 games
MiranaMuka
Mirana
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHeaven
54% · 53 games44% · 97 games
Enchantress633
Enchantress
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernLodine
59% · 49 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 55%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3