DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:0
GBGolden Barysloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 19 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 18 games
Marssignature
Covisnine · 16 games
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 14 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 13 games
Snapfire
xsvampire · 13 games
Pucksignature
young G · 12 games
Batrideroften banned
xsvampire · 11 games
Golden Barys
Lion
ArrOw · 1 game
Skywrath Mage
ArrOw · 1 game
Tusk
ArrOw · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
559 picks · 666 bans
Tusk
505 picks · 333 bans
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 662 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 531 bans
Snapfire
435 picks · 152 bans
Hoodwink
413 picks · 198 bans
Mars
381 picks · 515 bans
Gyrocopter
367 picks · 500 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Golden Barys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:18
Nemiga Gaming 56%Golden Barys 44%
The model gave 56% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 38:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Painyoung G
Skywrath MageArrOw
Ursaselfhate
TidehunterCovisnine
Crystal MaidenVaniLLl
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 68%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1