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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HellRaiserswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 22 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 18 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 15 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 14 games
64%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 12 games
42%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 12 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ainkrad · 11 games
64%

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
428 picks · 194 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
352 picks · 136 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 625 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
302 picks · 669 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
285 picks · 456 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
283 picks · 361 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
282 picks · 506 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
262 picks · 226 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:29
Nemiga Gaming 52%HellRaisers 48%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 36:07.
Game 2prediction correct31:13
Nemiga Gaming 52%HellRaisers 48%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 39:47.
Game 3prediction missed26:35
Nemiga Gaming 52%HellRaisers 48%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 48:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 52%
Series resultHellRaisers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3