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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 19 games
47%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 18 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ainkrad · 17 games
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
VANSKOR · 16 games
44%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Heaven · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Kiritych · 15 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
VANSKOR · 14 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 13 games
77%

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 439 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
476 picks · 701 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
440 picks · 295 bans
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 535 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
377 picks · 603 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 603 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
353 picks · 517 bans
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
345 picks · 759 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total51% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:32
Nemiga Gaming 49%HellRaisers 51%
The model gave 51% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 32:26.
Game 2prediction correct15:35
Nemiga Gaming 49%HellRaisers 51%
The model gave 51% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 37:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 51%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2