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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HFloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 24 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 22 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
VANSKOR · 20 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 18 games
56%
Bane
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 17 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 16 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ainkrad · 16 games
50%

HF

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 14 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 13 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 11 games
45%
Bane
Bane
Malady · 8 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 8 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
ArrOw · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
480 picks · 668 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
468 picks · 499 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
456 picks · 277 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
431 picks · 580 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
382 picks · 451 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
381 picks · 642 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 565 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
349 picks · 604 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% HF
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:22
Nemiga Gaming 53%HF 47%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by HF in 43:11.
Game 2prediction correct11:32
Nemiga Gaming 53%HF 47%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 32:05.
Game 3prediction correct
Nemiga Gaming 53%HF 47%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 53%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3