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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 14 games
36%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Shishak · 14 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shishak · 13 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
jesv · 12 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 10 games
20%
Sven
Sven
Lowskill · 10 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
antoha · 8 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
nicky`cool · 8 games
38%

Hydra

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 9 games
44%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 8 games
25%
Underlord
Underlord
Actor · 7 games
29%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ethereal · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Actor · 5 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
473 picks · 590 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
449 picks · 527 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 572 bans
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
373 picks · 184 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
368 picks · 407 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
362 picks · 270 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
332 picks · 709 bans
53%
Invoker
Invoker
332 picks · 921 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:24
Nemiga Gaming 44%Hydra 56%
The model gave 56% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 27:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingcutie
55% · 94 games49% · 157 games
Terrorbladeselfhate
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierMiyaoo
44% · 261 game46% · 109 games
DawnbreakerActor
Dawnbreaker
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritряф^^
48% · 157 games55% · 397 games
TinyEthereal
Tiny
Batrider
BatriderShishak
49% · 243 games54% · 122 games
Nyx Assassinprblms
Nyx Assassin
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanmonodrama
50% · 30 games
Game 2prediction correct14:29
Nemiga Gaming 42%Hydra 58%
The model gave 58% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 39:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptercutie
51% · 237 games58% · 46 games
Drow Rangerselfhate
Drow Ranger
Sand King
Sand Kingряф^^
54% · 104 games52% · 504 games
TinyEthereal
Tiny
Doom
DoomMiyaoo
49% · 163 games52% · 174 games
BristlebackActor
Bristleback
Phoenix
Phoenixmonodrama
44% · 201 game43% · 229 games
Muertaprblms
Muerta
Hoodwink
HoodwinkShishak
49% · 248 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 59%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2