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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 8 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
29%
Lion
Lion
Shishak · 7 games
14%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
monodrama · 7 games
14%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
спортик · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shishak · 6 games
33%
Muerta
Muerta
Shishak · 6 games
17%
Chen
Chenoften banned
antoha · 5 games
40%

Hydra

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
selfhate · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
38%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 8 games
38%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Actor · 7 games
86%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ethereal · 7 games
71%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
mellojul · 6 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
prblms · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
443 picks · 672 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
400 picks · 399 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
351 picks · 722 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
323 picks · 612 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
321 picks · 533 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
320 picks · 191 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
299 picks · 577 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
292 picks · 271 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 47%
Hero pool strength63% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total69% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:33
Nemiga Gaming 38%Hydra 62%
The model gave 62% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 30:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinbashka
53% · 146 games47% · 251 game
Terrorbladeselfhate
Terrorblade
Tiny
Tinyспортик
49% · 333 games56% · 346 games
Ember Spiritmellojul
Ember Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCovisnine
55% · 176 games46% · 327 games
BristlebackActor
Bristleback
Jakiro
Jakiromonodrama
47% · 211 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanFervian
47% · 58 games
Game 2prediction correct8:28
Nemiga Gaming 37%Hydra 63%
The model gave 63% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 25:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinybashka
50% · 229 games47% · 136 games
Kunkkamellojul
Kunkka
Underlord
UnderlordCovisnine
49% · 48 games56% · 226 games
BristlebackActor
Bristleback
Sand King
Sand Kingспортик
54% · 154 games53% · 242 games
Morphlingselfhate
Morphling
Windranger
WindrangerFervian
41% · 109 games
Warlock
Warlockmonodrama
44% · 64 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 69%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2