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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ilbirs eSportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 12 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
VaniLLl · 11 games
27%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 9 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 9 games
44%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
11%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
56%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 8 games
38%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
VaniLLl · 7 games
29%

Ilbirs eSports

Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 6 games
17%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 5 games
20%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 5 games
20%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
Norma · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
xsvampire · 3 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
xsvampire · 3 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Rain · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
xsvampire · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
630 picks · 814 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
558 picks · 576 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
452 picks · 400 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
446 picks · 296 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
403 picks · 1046 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
385 picks · 681 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 599 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 514 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 32%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:8
Nemiga Gaming 58%Ilbirs eSports 42%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinselfhate
50% · 303 games51% · 346 games
Shadow Fiendrubikon155
Shadow Fiend
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightyoung G
44% · 480 games55% · 613 games
Puckniche
Puck
Batrider
BatriderCovisnine
49% · 299 games54% · 267 games
UnderlordMiyaoo
Underlord
Tusk
Tuskariel
46% · 538 games48% · 818 games
JakiroUndyne_
Jakiro
Ringmaster
RingmasterVaniLLl
52% · 424 games
Game 2prediction correct39:13
Nemiga Gaming 55%Ilbirs eSports 45%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 37:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterselfhate
50% · 283 games54% · 376 games
Templar Assassinrubikon155
Templar Assassin
Phoenix
PhoenixCovisnine
48% · 208 games49% · 466 games
Void Spiritniche
Void Spirit
Puck
Puckyoung G
50% · 551 game54% · 424 games
BatriderMiyaoo
Batrider
Tiny
Tinyariel
45% · 434 games50% · 560 games
WarlockUndyne_
Warlock
Disruptor
DisruptorVaniLLl
47% · 350 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 64%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2