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CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kalmychataloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 13 games
62%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 10 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 9 games
44%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 9 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 8 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
xsvampire · 8 games
38%
Sven
Svenoften banned
bashka · 8 games
50%

Kalmychata

Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 12 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 11 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
not me · 9 games
67%
Axe
Axesignature
meLes · 8 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Gilgir · 8 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
meLes · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
586 picks · 590 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
397 picks · 389 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
381 picks · 407 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
354 picks · 210 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 507 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
332 picks · 715 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
322 picks · 629 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
321 picks · 818 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:35
Nemiga Gaming 42%Kalmychata 58%
The model gave 58% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 36:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinrincyq
57% · 130 games48% · 154 games
LifestealerLowskill
Lifestealer
Mars
MarsCovisnine
52% · 118 games44% · 281 game
DawnbreakerCorrupted
Dawnbreaker
Monkey King
Monkey Kingyoung G
59% · 171 game49% · 83 games
Void Spiritxn丶e
Void Spirit
Batrider
Batrideraik
53% · 249 games44% · 438 games
TuskGilgir
Tusk
Tiny
Tinyxsvampire
50% · 288 games
Game 2prediction missed58:22
Nemiga Gaming 40%Kalmychata 60%
The model gave 60% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 38:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetrincyq
55% · 132 games52% · 114 games
UrsaLowskill
Ursa
Puck
Puckyoung G
55% · 125 games49% · 100 games
AxeCorrupted
Axe
Kunkka
KunkkaCovisnine
43% · 69 games43% · 75 games
Leshracxn丶e
Leshrac
Windranger
Windrangerxsvampire
50% · 55 games49% · 150 games
MarciGilgir
Marci
Bane
Baneaik
55% · 58 games
Game 3prediction missed52:14
Nemiga Gaming 44%Kalmychata 56%
The model gave 56% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 32:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCovisnine
50% · 85 games52% · 95 games
AbaddonLowskill
Abaddon
Monkey King
Monkey Kingrincyq
60% · 112 games33% · 45 games
Death Prophetxn丶e
Death Prophet
Invoker
Invokeryoung G
53% · 66 games49% · 153 games
MarsCorrupted
Mars
Pugna
Pugnaxsvampire
54% · 58 games47% · 63 games
AxeGilgir
Axe
Lich
Lichaik
49% · 35 games
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 63%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3