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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 18 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Covisnine · 17 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 14 games
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
xsvampire · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
xsvampire · 12 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 11 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Mary_y · 11 games
45%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
767 picks · 354 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
573 picks · 299 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
550 picks · 549 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
528 picks · 388 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
510 picks · 620 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 288 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
467 picks · 738 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
451 picks · 507 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 51%
Hero pool strength55% Kalmychata
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total64% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:28
Nemiga Gaming 36%Kalmychata 64%
The model gave 64% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 28:59.
Game 2prediction correct30:32
Nemiga Gaming 36%Kalmychata 64%
The model gave 64% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 39:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 64%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2