?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Khanwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 27 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 26 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 21 game
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 19 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 17 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 17 games
41%
Lina
Linasignature
Heaven · 15 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 15 games
40%

Khan

Bane
Bane
antoha · 3 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 3 games
33%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
goddam · 3 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Dodren · 3 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 2 games
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
layme · 2 games
0%
Chen
Chenoften banned
antoha · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
350 picks · 175 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
293 picks · 106 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
266 picks · 408 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
259 picks · 350 bans
50%
Lina
Lina
258 picks · 515 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
234 picks · 332 bans
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
226 picks · 236 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
222 picks · 471 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Khan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:26
Nemiga Gaming 55%Khan 45%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Khan in 29:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingKiritych
46% · 112 games56% · 126 games
Troll Warlordlayme
Troll Warlord
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAinkrad
49% · 178 games54% · 113 games
TinyDodren
Tiny
Tidehunter
TidehunterTheChosenOne
45% · 127 games57% · 135 games
BeastmasterpJonn
Beastmaster
Rubick
RubickHeaven
43% · 126 games62% · 131 game
Shadow DemonSoulEater
Shadow Demon
Silencer
SilencerLodine
37% · 26 games44% · 64 games
Omniknightantoha
Omniknight
Game 2prediction missed28:43
Nemiga Gaming 56%Khan 44%
The model gave 56% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Khan in 44:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinKiritych
52% · 67 games48% · 42 games
Morphlinglayme
Morphling
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainAinkrad
48% · 49 games42% · 61 game
LinaDodren
Lina
Venomancer
VenomancerTheChosenOne
47% · 32 games48% · 52 games
BatriderpJonn
Batrider
Tiny
TinyHeaven
54% · 99 games45% · 12 games
Silencerantoha
Silencer
Jakiro
JakiroLodine
40% · 14 games58% · 94 games
Monkey Kinggoddam
Monkey King
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 60%
Series resultKhan 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2