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CCT Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LFGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 11 games
27%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Shishak · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shishak · 9 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Miyaoo · 8 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
antoha · 7 games
43%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 7 games
57%
Lion
Lion
Shishak · 6 games
17%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ряф^^ · 6 games
50%

LFG

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
flacko · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Astral · 4 games
75%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nizam` · 4 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nizam` · 4 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 3 games
33%
Lich
Lich
flacko · 3 games
0%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Norma · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
475 picks · 418 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
437 picks · 567 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
435 picks · 534 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
434 picks · 230 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
430 picks · 504 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
422 picks · 750 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
371 picks · 586 bans
46%
Tiny
Tiny
366 picks · 417 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% LFG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% LFG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed51:43
Nemiga Gaming 49%LFG 51%
The model gave 51% on LFG — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:00:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerbashka
53% · 24 games40% · 7 games
Juggernautyowaai
Juggernaut
Earthshaker
Earthshakerспортик
52% · 74 games50% · 39 games
LycanNorma
Lycan
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCovisnine
47% · 128 games56% · 109 games
Earth SpiritNizam`
Earth Spirit
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeShishak
55% · 54 games45% · 153 games
Phoenixflacko
Phoenix
Lich
LichHduo
45% · 95 games53% · 67 games
Nyx AssassinAstral
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct21:40
Nemiga Gaming 48%LFG 52%
The model gave 52% on LFG — the game was taken by LFG in 34:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbashka
47% · 352 games51% · 233 games
BeastmasterNorma
Beastmaster
Night Stalker
Night StalkerCovisnine
53% · 64 games47% · 199 games
Terrorbladeyowaai
Terrorblade
Earthshaker
Earthshakerспортик
44% · 92 games55% · 142 games
SniperNizam`
Sniper
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonShishak
49% · 299 games52% · 407 games
BatriderAstral
Batrider
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenHduo
50% · 263 games53% · 89 games
Lichflacko
Lich
Game 3prediction correct25:36
Nemiga Gaming 47%LFG 53%
The model gave 53% on LFG — the game was taken by LFG in 48:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbashka
50% · 465 games51% · 345 games
Gyrocopteryowaai
Gyrocopter
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritспортик
55% · 251 game52% · 243 games
DoomNorma
Doom
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCovisnine
48% · 301 game53% · 182 games
InvokerNizam`
Invoker
Muerta
MuertaShishak
47% · 324 games48% · 327 games
Phoenixflacko
Phoenix
Zeus
ZeusHduo
46% · 127 games50% · 371 game
BatriderAstral
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteLFG · 52%
Series resultLFG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3