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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LiXO eSportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
VaniLLl · 13 games
31%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 10 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 9 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 9 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 9 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 9 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 8 games
38%

LiXO eSports

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Rayx · 4 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
aguwa · 4 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
zenica · 3 games
33%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Garbat1y · 3 games
33%
Marci
Marci
aguwa · 3 games
0%
Warlock
Warlock
Garbat1y · 3 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
zenica · 2 games
50%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
eva · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
689 picks · 847 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
594 picks · 615 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
493 picks · 423 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
488 picks · 338 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
424 picks · 1112 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
406 picks · 1033 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 701 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 632 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 30%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:20
Nemiga Gaming 69%LiXO eSports 31%
The model gave 69% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 48:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageselfhate
56% · 35 games43% · 23 games
Weaverzvёzd
Weaver
Invoker
Invokeryoung G
51% · 147 games52% · 67 games
Void SpiritRayx
Void Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderCovisnine
64% · 6 games50% · 124 games
Warlockeva
Warlock
Venomancer
VenomancerVaniLLl
47% · 30 games43% · 41 game
Doomzenica
Doom
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinariel
53% · 80 games47% · 43 games
Dark Willowaguwa
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct38:23
Nemiga Gaming 66%LiXO eSports 34%
The model gave 66% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 44:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeselfhate
49% · 245 games52% · 311 games
PuckRayx
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightyoung G
44% · 432 games52% · 203 games
Bristlebackzenica
Bristleback
Doom
DoomCovisnine
48% · 160 games53% · 39 games
Lunazvёzd
Luna
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterariel
49% · 93 games57% · 267 games
Hoodwinkaguwa
Hoodwink
Lich
LichVaniLLl
42% · 8 games51% · 118 games
Baneeva
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 80%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2