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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nightshadewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 16 games
31%
Batrider
Batridersignature
jesv · 15 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
aik · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shishak · 13 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
33%
Underlord
Underlord
MikSa` · 12 games
33%
Slardar
Slardar
nicky`cool · 11 games
55%

Nightshade

Snapfire
Snapfire
waveformn · 4 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Kyzko · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ri4man · 3 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
jmn- · 3 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
33%
Marci
Marcioften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Kyzko · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
waveformn · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
439 picks · 588 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
380 picks · 397 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
328 picks · 460 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
327 picks · 392 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
305 picks · 589 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
291 picks · 156 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
278 picks · 330 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
263 picks · 778 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:10
Nemiga Gaming 56%Nightshade 44%
The model gave 56% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 32:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingряф^^
40% · 51 game42% · 41 game
DawnbreakerChodΣX
Dawnbreaker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMiyaoo
60% · 58 games54% · 116 games
Pugnawaveformn
Pugna
Snapfire
SnapfireShishak
54% · 23 games
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenantoha
49% · 25 games
Game 2prediction missed40:36
Nemiga Gaming 53%Nightshade 47%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nightshade in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingряф^^
50% · 52 games53% · 115 games
BrewmasterChodΣX
Brewmaster
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMiyaoo
44% · 35 games52% · 204 games
Lionwaveformn
Lion
Hoodwink
HoodwinkShishak
48% · 146 games
Tusk
Tuskantoha
47% · 86 games
Game 3prediction missed19:21
Nemiga Gaming 57%Nightshade 43%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nightshade in 28:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinряф^^
53% · 81 game46% · 209 games
PhoenixChodΣX
Phoenix
Night Stalker
Night StalkerMiyaoo
57% · 21 game45% · 134 games
Tuskwaveformn
Tusk
Snapfire
SnapfireShishak
50% · 176 games
Chen
Chenantoha
60% · 65 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 59%
Series resultNightshade 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3