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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
One Movewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Tusk
Tusksignature
Malr1ne · 11 games
73%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
56%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 9 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Hellscream · 8 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
so bad · 8 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 8 games
88%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Hellscream · 8 games
63%

One Move

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Gilgir · 21 game
52%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
Panto · 17 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 14 games
71%
Rubick
Rubick
Gilgir · 14 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Ainkrad · 14 games
50%
Chen
Chensignature
Panto · 11 games
91%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Panto · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
398 picks · 385 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
357 picks · 357 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
338 picks · 232 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
286 picks · 291 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
216 picks · 112 bans
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
215 picks · 269 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 149 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
191 picks · 531 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:41
Nemiga Gaming 52%One Move 48%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by One Move in 54:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKiritych
55% · 219 games54% · 69 games
SniperMunkushi~
Sniper
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCorrupted
57% · 265 games45% · 195 games
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Ember Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
55% · 141 game43% · 226 games
Death ProphetAfterLife
Death Prophet
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorso bad
50% · 235 games47% · 193 games
RubickGilgir
Rubick
Techies
TechiesHellscream
42% · 73 games52% · 250 games
TuskPanto
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct44:22
Nemiga Gaming 53%One Move 47%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 57:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaKiritych
55% · 95 games48% · 76 games
Drow RangerMunkushi~
Drow Ranger
Leshrac
LeshracMalr1ne
58% · 124 games49% · 134 games
DoomAfterLife
Doom
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
47% · 55 games41% · 125 games
BatriderAinkrad
Batrider
Snapfire
SnapfireHellscream
46% · 227 games47% · 54 games
RikiGilgir
Riki
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorso bad
55% · 155 games53% · 267 games
RubickPanto
Rubick
Game 3prediction missed20:46
Nemiga Gaming 53%One Move 47%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by One Move in 45:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
53% · 96 games48% · 115 games
Monkey KingMunkushi~
Monkey King
Pudge
PudgeKiritych
57% · 103 games45% · 205 games
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Ember Spirit
Batrider
BatriderCorrupted
48% · 160 games50% · 171 game
BeastmasterAfterLife
Beastmaster
Rubick
RubickHellscream
48% · 269 games51% · 150 games
Treant ProtectorPanto
Treant Protector
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenso bad
53% · 178 games48% · 165 games
HoodwinkGilgir
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 53%
Series resultOne Move 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3