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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 15 games
53%
Lion
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
79%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 14 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
nicky`cool · 12 games
67%
Techies
Techies
aik · 12 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MikSa` · 11 games
36%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 11 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 11 games
45%

One Move

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 9 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
AfterLife · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Wein · 7 games
14%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 6 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Panto · 6 games
17%
Lion
Lion
queezy · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
471 picks · 209 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
427 picks · 591 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 740 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
377 picks · 533 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
377 picks · 153 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 688 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
345 picks · 300 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
334 picks · 538 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 45%
Hero pool strength59% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total73% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:14
Nemiga Gaming 65%One Move 35%
The model gave 65% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaLukas
52% · 209 games45% · 255 games
Morphlingnesfeer
Morphling
Death Prophet
Death Prophetnicky`cool
49% · 84 games50% · 122 games
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsMikSa`
55% · 242 games50% · 310 games
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
Centaur Warrunner
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterqueezy
55% · 184 games46% · 181 game
HoodwinkWein
Hoodwink
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenaik
51% · 219 games47% · 70 games
IoRein
Io
Game 2prediction correct23:12
Nemiga Gaming 64%One Move 36%
The model gave 64% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 24:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaLukas
53% · 173 games49% · 31 game
Earth Spiritxn丶e
Earth Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
52% · 149 games47% · 89 games
Lifestealernesfeer
Lifestealer
Visage
VisageMikSa`
47% · 24 games51% · 139 games
KunkkaSSS
Kunkka
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
37% · 105 games56% · 156 games
Shadow DemonWein
Shadow Demon
Bane
Baneaik
53% · 42 games51% · 78 games
Skywrath MageRein
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 73%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2