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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PlayTimewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 25 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 16 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
VaniLLl · 16 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 15 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 14 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
ariel · 14 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Covisnine · 13 games
46%

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 11 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Gabbi · 7 games
86%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Armel · 6 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Akashi · 5 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kuku · 5 games
60%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
Gabbi · 5 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kuku · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
511 picks · 418 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
481 picks · 256 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
479 picks · 540 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
473 picks · 353 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
412 picks · 358 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
364 picks · 817 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
356 picks · 867 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
346 picks · 203 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% PlayTime
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% PlayTime
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:13
Nemiga Gaming 36%PlayTime 64%
The model gave 64% on PlayTime — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 36:32.
Game 2prediction correct10:30
Nemiga Gaming 44%PlayTime 56%
The model gave 56% on PlayTime — the game was taken by PlayTime in 22:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidselfhate
57% · 85 games48% · 170 games
DoomWits
Doom
Void Spirit
Void Spirityoung G
46% · 235 games49% · 322 games
Queen of PainDarkMago
Queen of Pain
Batrider
BatriderCovisnine
52% · 312 games57% · 104 games
LargoFrank
Largo
Rubick
Rubickariel
51% · 172 games47% · 274 games
PhoenixElmisho
Phoenix
Ringmaster
RingmasterVaniLLl
47% · 200 games47% · 134 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoritePlayTime · 64%
Series resultPlayTime 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2