BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Monkey Kingsignature
Hellscream · 9 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 8 games
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 8 games
Lifestealersignature
Kiritych · 7 games
Phoenix
Hellscream · 7 games
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 7 games
Enchantresssignature
so bad · 6 games
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 6 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
378 picks · 360 bans
Tusk
343 picks · 327 bans
Marci
250 picks · 483 bans
Pangolier
249 picks · 579 bans
Undying
238 picks · 444 bans
Snapfire
230 picks · 129 bans
Primal Beast
228 picks · 595 bans
Crystal Maiden
218 picks · 147 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:8
Nemiga Gaming 54%PuckChamp 46%
The model gave 54% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 23:29.
Game 2prediction correct45:16
Nemiga Gaming 54%PuckChamp 46%
The model gave 54% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 40:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 54%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2