Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Qqwertyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 12 games
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 5 games
Tusk
Lodine · 5 games
Jakiro
Lodine · 4 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
tatakae · 4 games
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 4 games
Witch Doctor
Lodine · 4 games
qwerty
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
401 picks · 932 bans
Void Spirit
373 picks · 565 bans
Mars
326 picks · 599 bans
Death Prophet
291 picks · 571 bans
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 257 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 170 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 404 bans
Phoenix
239 picks · 326 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 70%
Hero pool strength50% qwerty
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% qwerty
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:25
Nemiga Gaming 49%qwerty 51%
The model gave 51% on qwerty — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 46:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteqwerty · 51%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1