ESL One Fall 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Qqwertyloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 20 games
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 14 games
Hoodwink
Heaven · 12 games
Lion
Lodine · 12 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 12 games
Dark Willow
Heaven · 11 games
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 10 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Kiritych · 10 games
qwerty
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
427 picks · 170 bans
Ancient Apparition
314 picks · 470 bans
Nyx Assassin
305 picks · 621 bans
Puck
298 picks · 696 bans
Mars
297 picks · 523 bans
Hoodwink
270 picks · 114 bans
Enchantress
256 picks · 344 bans
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 309 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total62% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:7
Nemiga Gaming 62%qwerty 38%
The model gave 62% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 27:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 62%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1