EPIC League Season 3. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:0
RUSSIANDRILLloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 6 games
Jakiro
Lodine · 4 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
tatakae · 4 games
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 4 games
Tusk
Lodine · 4 games
Witch Doctor
Lodine · 4 games
RUSSIANDRILL
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
339 picks · 686 bans
Void Spirit
321 picks · 399 bans
Mars
269 picks · 472 bans
Earth Spirit
250 picks · 210 bans
Death Prophet
224 picks · 332 bans
Rubick
224 picks · 124 bans
Nyx Assassin
215 picks · 638 bans
Keeper of the Light
214 picks · 435 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% RUSSIANDRILL
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% RUSSIANDRILL
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteRUSSIANDRILL · 56%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:0
Series predictionmissed