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EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Aionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 20 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 20 games
35%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 20 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 20 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
ariel · 16 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 15 games
53%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Covisnine · 14 games
50%

Team Aion

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
0%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
0%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Krinzhik · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 1 game
0%
Lina
Lina
Mo13ei · 1 game
0%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 1 game
0%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Krinzhik · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
519 picks · 365 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
417 picks · 251 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
359 picks · 364 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
337 picks · 637 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 419 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
324 picks · 234 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
289 picks · 313 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
284 picks · 427 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:31
Nemiga Gaming 66%Team Aion 34%
The model gave 66% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 53:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangerbyun
47% · 305 games48% · 144 games
LunaRetsu
Luna
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirityoung G
45% · 472 games53% · 499 games
Ember SpiritMo13ei
Ember Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCovisnine
46% · 163 games52% · 629 games
Hoodwinkxsvampire
Hoodwink
Rubick
Rubickariel
47% · 371 game51% · 295 games
ClockwerkKrinzhik
Clockwerk
Bane
BaneJANTER
60% · 256 games
Game 2prediction correct38:15
Nemiga Gaming 64%Team Aion 36%
The model gave 64% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 38:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerbyun
45% · 84 games49% · 231 game
TimbersawMo13ei
Timbersaw
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirityoung G
50% · 293 games46% · 298 games
WindrangerRetsu
Windranger
Kunkka
KunkkaCovisnine
45% · 59 games54% · 205 games
Lionxsvampire
Lion
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkariel
50% · 400 games54% · 296 games
ClockwerkKrinzhik
Clockwerk
Bane
BaneJANTER
55% · 194 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 77%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2