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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Lynxloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bashka · 8 games
13%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 8 games
25%
Sven
Svenoften banned
bashka · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 6 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
спортик · 6 games
0%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
monodrama · 6 games
33%

Team Lynx

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
17%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
StoneBank · 5 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 4 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
25%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
0%
Wraith King
Wraith King
StoneBank · 3 games
33%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
StoneBank · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
516 picks · 549 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 426 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 377 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 510 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
324 picks · 707 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
310 picks · 561 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
307 picks · 196 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 439 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 30%
Hero pool strength51% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Nemiga Gaming 78%Team Lynx 22%
The model gave 78% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Game 2prediction correct
Nemiga Gaming 78%Team Lynx 22%
The model gave 78% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming.
Game 3prediction correct
Nemiga Gaming 78%Team Lynx 22%
The model gave 78% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 78%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3