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Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team NextUpwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
79%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Hellscream · 9 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
forcemajor · 8 games
50%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
zenica · 6 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
forcemajor · 6 games
33%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
zenica · 6 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
v1olent- · 6 games
83%

Team NextUp

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
38%
Batrider
Batridersignature
VaniLLl · 7 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Miyaoo · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 4 games
75%
Juggernaut
Juggernaut
7jesu · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
373 picks · 342 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 320 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 478 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
299 picks · 409 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
284 picks · 199 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
276 picks · 155 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
272 picks · 407 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
270 picks · 479 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Nemiga Gaming 71%Team NextUp 29%
The model gave 71% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Team NextUp.
Game 2prediction missed
Nemiga Gaming 71%Team NextUp 29%
The model gave 71% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Team NextUp.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 71%
Series resultTeam NextUp 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2