?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Sexyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Treant Protector
Treant Protector
so bad · 13 games
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 12 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Hellscream · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malr1ne · 11 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Hellscream · 10 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 9 games
78%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Malr1ne · 8 games
25%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Hellscream · 8 games
88%

Team Sexy

Lich
Lichsignature
Hduo · 8 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 7 games
71%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 7 games
86%
Ursa
Ursasignature
7jesu · 6 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 4 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
9Class · 4 games
100%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Moonlight · 4 games
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Moonlight · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
977 picks · 664 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
662 picks · 477 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
587 picks · 939 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
559 picks · 439 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
527 picks · 523 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
522 picks · 348 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
506 picks · 1115 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
477 picks · 354 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 70%
Hero pool strength58% Team Sexy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Sexy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:16
Nemiga Gaming 48%Team Sexy 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 31:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladev1olent-
45% · 245 games55% · 100 games
Riki7jesu
Riki
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
42% · 96 games54% · 124 games
VisageNefrit
Visage
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
49% · 222 games50% · 312 games
Death ProphetMoonlight
Death Prophet
Enchantress
Enchantressso bad
47% · 239 games60% · 55 games
Techies9Class
Techies
Disruptor
DisruptorHellscream
52% · 265 games46% · 476 games
RubickHduo
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct12:26
Nemiga Gaming 47%Team Sexy 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 33:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCorrupted
53% · 372 games54% · 94 games
Drow Ranger7jesu
Drow Ranger
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightv1olent-
43% · 210 games51% · 223 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
50% · 261 game49% · 309 games
Death ProphetMoonlight
Death Prophet
Phoenix
Phoenixso bad
48% · 183 games49% · 168 games
Monkey King9Class
Monkey King
Elder Titan
Elder TitanHellscream
51% · 41 game54% · 273 games
ClockwerkHduo
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed27:17
Nemiga Gaming 47%Team Sexy 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 38:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperMalr1ne
55% · 92 games42% · 189 games
Drow Ranger7jesu
Drow Ranger
Slark
Slarkv1olent-
48% · 96 games51% · 128 games
TidehunterNefrit
Tidehunter
Pangolier
PangolierCorrupted
52% · 236 games50% · 28 games
HuskarMoonlight
Huskar
Rubick
RubickHellscream
45% · 415 games51% · 396 games
UndyingHduo
Undying
Clockwerk
Clockwerkso bad
48% · 237 games58% · 335 games
Disruptor9Class
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sexy · 52%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3