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Positive Fire Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
V-Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 7 games
57%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Lodine · 6 games
67%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 6 games
50%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 5 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Lodine · 4 games
25%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 4 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
tatakae · 4 games
75%

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 6 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 6 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 4 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
ArrOw · 3 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Dodren · 3 games
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ArrOw · 3 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
laise · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
454 picks · 985 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
431 picks · 590 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
371 picks · 697 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
351 picks · 610 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
326 picks · 303 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
288 picks · 254 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
288 picks · 182 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
282 picks · 395 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% V-Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:43
Nemiga Gaming 59%V-Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 45:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerKiritych
46% · 32 games50% · 6 games
Faceless VoidTA2000
Faceless Void
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTheChosenOne
52% · 20 games53% · 80 games
PuckhAze
Puck
Pugna
PugnaAinkrad
51% · 10 games49% · 81 game
Marslaise
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfireLodine
50% · 15 games54% · 36 games
MiranaArrOw
Mirana
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritHellscream
50% · 176 games48% · 50 games
OracleMalady
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct34:38
Nemiga Gaming 62%V-Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 41:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautKiritych
48% · 42 games57% · 3 games
Night StalkerTA2000
Night Stalker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAinkrad
63% · 51 game50% · 6 games
Centaur Warrunnerlaise
Centaur Warrunner
Axe
AxeTheChosenOne
58% · 18 games41% · 59 games
RubickArrOw
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorLodine
45% · 15 games50% · 34 games
Storm SpirithAze
Storm Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHellscream
55% · 19 games44% · 43 games
Witch DoctorMalady
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 68%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2