?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
V-Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 23 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 20 games
65%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 16 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 16 games
44%
Lina
Linasignature
Heaven · 14 games
64%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 14 games
43%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Lodine · 14 games
57%

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 26 games
73%
Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 17 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 17 games
53%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 15 games
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 15 games
80%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 14 games
71%
Axe
Axeoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
379 picks · 171 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
349 picks · 127 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 521 bans
57%
Lina
Lina
256 picks · 426 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
254 picks · 343 bans
47%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
248 picks · 243 bans
54%
Luna
Luna
247 picks · 341 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
236 picks · 495 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 72%
Hero pool strength55% V-Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total66% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:26
Nemiga Gaming 42%V-Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderAinkrad
41% · 95 games44% · 34 games
WeaverTA2000
Weaver
Sven
SvenKiritych
54% · 68 games52% · 105 games
LinahAze
Lina
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritTheChosenOne
55% · 10 games47% · 80 games
Tidehunterlaise
Tidehunter
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHeaven
51% · 77 games58% · 71 game
RubickArrOw
Rubick
Omniknight
OmniknightLodine
53% · 56 games36% · 16 games
LichMalady
Lich
Game 2prediction missed25:9
Nemiga Gaming 43%V-Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 16:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkKiritych
48% · 38 games37% · 55 games
GyrocopterTA2000
Gyrocopter
Razor
RazorAinkrad
62% · 44 games59% · 86 games
InvokerhAze
Invoker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTheChosenOne
47% · 50 games38% · 4 games
Silencerlaise
Silencer
Lina
LinaHeaven
47% · 127 games50% · 66 games
Shadow DemonArrOw
Shadow Demon
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritLodine
55% · 7 games54% · 55 games
Faceless VoidMalady
Faceless Void
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 66%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2