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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
WhyTryloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
55%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 6 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Lodine · 4 games
25%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
tatakae · 4 games
75%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 4 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 4 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
Lodine · 4 games
50%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Lodine · 4 games
50%

WhyTry

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
381 picks · 817 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
358 picks · 494 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
308 picks · 541 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
275 picks · 454 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 231 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
251 picks · 151 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
237 picks · 504 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
235 picks · 360 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% WhyTry
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:32
Nemiga Gaming 51%WhyTry 49%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 30:36.
Game 2prediction missed31:33
Nemiga Gaming 51%WhyTry 49%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by WhyTry in 45:36.
Game 3prediction correct10:27
Nemiga Gaming 51%WhyTry 49%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 51%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3