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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Winter Bearwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 20 games
70%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 17 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Covisnine · 17 games
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
young G · 13 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
xsvampire · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 11 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
xsvampire · 11 games
55%

Winter Bear

Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Panda · 3 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Panda · 3 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Panda · 2 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Otaker · 1 game
0%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Stoic · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
OmaR · 1 game
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Panda · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
788 picks · 362 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
579 picks · 579 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
579 picks · 300 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
495 picks · 581 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
494 picks · 337 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 270 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
477 picks · 754 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
439 picks · 1112 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 37%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 2prediction missed20:29
Nemiga Gaming 58%Winter Bear 42%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 49:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladechempik
49% · 150 games49% · 95 games
InvokerPanda
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void Spirityoung G
47% · 94 games54% · 167 games
Marcilegacy
Marci
Slardar
SlardarCovisnine
56% · 89 games49% · 246 games
BatriderKaori
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorVaniLLl
45% · 175 games
Game 3prediction correct47:25
Nemiga Gaming 59%Winter Bear 41%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 51:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterchempik
51% · 135 games58% · 89 games
InvokerPanda
Invoker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
45% · 118 gameslittle data
Necrophoslegacy
Necrophos
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirityoung G
49% · 166 games49% · 410 games
JakiroKaori
Jakiro
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionVaniLLl
42% · 80 games
Game 4prediction missed20:31
Nemiga Gaming 57%Winter Bear 43%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 35:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCovisnine
44% · 193 games59% · 213 games
Ursalegacy
Ursa
Windranger
Windrangerchempik
44% · 99 games54% · 270 games
Ember SpiritPanda
Ember Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightyoung G
41% · 270 games53% · 284 games
BatriderKaori
Batrider
Snapfire
SnapfireVaniLLl
50% · 205 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 65%
Series resultWinter Bear 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3