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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 21 game
62%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 17 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Covisnine · 13 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 13 games
62%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 12 games
67%
Underlord
Underlord
Covisnine · 12 games
42%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 12 games
42%

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 20 games
35%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 17 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mirele · 16 games
63%
Muerta
Muertasignature
bottega · 16 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 16 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
bottega · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
303 picks · 192 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
295 picks · 658 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
260 picks · 113 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
256 picks · 251 bans
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
251 picks · 611 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
249 picks · 513 bans
58%
Batrider
Batrider
244 picks · 677 bans
54%
Marci
Marci
244 picks · 521 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 51%
Hero pool strength54% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total70% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:29
Nemiga Gaming 30%Yellow Submarine 70%
The model gave 70% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:11:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 70%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1