BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Army Geniusesloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 28 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 28 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 23 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 21 game
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 19 games
Tusk
Jaunuel · 19 games
Leshracsignature
Enryu · 15 games
Lion
Jaunuel · 15 games
Army Geniuses
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 13 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 12 games
Mirana
Lym- · 10 games
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 8 games
Axeoften banned
db- · 7 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
Hoodwink
Lym- · 7 games
Marsoften banned
woMy · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
372 picks · 173 bans
Hoodwink
349 picks · 124 bans
Lina
266 picks · 446 bans
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 523 bans
Luna
248 picks · 344 bans
Winter Wyvern
242 picks · 246 bans
Dragon Knight
238 picks · 332 bans
Terrorblade
237 picks · 481 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 31%
Hero pool strength57% Neon Esports
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total72% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:12
Neon Esports 62%Army Geniuses 38%
The model gave 62% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 24:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracMikoto
MagnusMamangDaya
Lycan458
MarswoMy
Dark Seerxiaoyu154
Vengeful Spiritdb-
Spirit BreakerNARMAN
PhoenixLym-
Keeper of the LightJaunuel
Game 2prediction missed21:33
Neon Esports 63%Army Geniuses 37%
The model gave 63% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 31:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorMikoto
GyrocopterMamangDaya
Monkey King458
PugnawoMy
Marsxiaoyu154
Tidehunterdb-
RubickNARMAN
Earth SpiritLym-
SilencerJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 72%
Accuracy by game1 of 2