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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Atlantisloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 9 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Se · 9 games
44%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ChuaN · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Karma丶 · 7 games
14%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ChuaN · 6 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Enryu · 6 games
33%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
ChuaN · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Enryu · 6 games
33%

Atlantis

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
710 picks · 560 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
501 picks · 655 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
499 picks · 781 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
481 picks · 1008 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
369 picks · 423 bans
54%
Zeus
Zeus
326 picks · 400 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
316 picks · 156 bans
49%
Razor
Razor
301 picks · 564 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Atlantis
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total58% Atlantis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:24
Neon Esports 42%Atlantis 58%
The model gave 58% on Atlantis — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 45:45.
Game 2prediction correct21:27
Neon Esports 42%Atlantis 58%
The model gave 58% on Atlantis — the game was taken by Atlantis in 48:52.
Game 3prediction missed37:14
Neon Esports 42%Atlantis 58%
The model gave 58% on Atlantis — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 41:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtlantis · 58%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3